Estimación y análisis de la incidencia de VIH en población adulta del Perú: Resultados de la aplicación del modelo matemático MoT

Translated title of the contribution: Estimation and analysis of HIV incidence in the adult population in Peru: Results of the application of the MoT mathematic model

Jorge Odon Alarcon Villaverde, Mónica Pun, Cesar Arturo Gutierrez Villafuerte, Alvaro Manuel Whittembury Vlasica, Romina Tejada, Luis Suárez, Gustavo Rosell, Annick Bórquez, Paloma Cuchi

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

7 Scopus citations

Abstract

Objectives. To estimate HIV incidence in the adult population of Peru, 2010, and analyze its distribution based on risk behavior. Materials and methods. The UNAIDS model was applied based on the modes of transmission (MoT). The information was obtained from the review detailed in 59 documents (1984 - 2008). National databases were also analyzed to obtain specific data. Final selection of data was validated by the technical group and a group of experts. After consultation with experts, values were corrected and an uncertainty analysis was conducted. The model was adjusted to 2009 national prevalence (0.45%). Results. Incidence estimated for 2010 was 0.03%, (4346 new infections). 84% of new infections concentrate on higher risk groups: men who have sex with men (55%) and people who have casual sex with heterosexuals (6.2%). The remaining 16% corresponds to low-risk heterosexual population. Heterosexual transmission accounts for 43% of new cases, 18% of which corresponds to female partners of high risk individuals. Only 2.2% of cases is related to female sexual work and 1.0% to injection drug users. Conclusions. The model provides an estimation of the incidence and its distribution among risk groups according to the mode of transmission, consistent with the HIV case reporting. The model creates scenarios to help decision making and policy formulation, as well as surveillance and planning of prevention and control.

Translated title of the contributionEstimation and analysis of HIV incidence in the adult population in Peru: Results of the application of the MoT mathematic model
Original languageSpanish
Pages (from-to)452-460
Number of pages9
JournalRevista Peruana de Medicina de Experimental y Salud Publica
Volume29
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - 2012
Externally publishedYes

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