Mathematical Modeling of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths and the Impact of Vaccinations during Three Years of the Pandemic in Peru

Olegario Marín-Machuca, Ruy D. Chacón, Natalia Alvarez-Lovera, Pedro Pesantes-Grados, Luis Pérez-Timaná, Obert Marín-Sánchez

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

1 Scopus citations

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused widespread infections, deaths, and substantial economic losses. Vaccine development efforts have led to authorized candidates reducing hospitalizations and mortality, although variant emergence remains a concern. Peru faced a significant impact due to healthcare deficiencies. This study employed logistic regression to mathematically model COVID-19’s dynamics in Peru over three years and assessed the correlations between cases, deaths, and people vaccinated. We estimated the critical time (tc) for cases (627 days), deaths (389 days), and people vaccinated (268 days), which led to the maximum speed values on those days. Negative correlations were identified between people vaccinated and cases (−0.40) and between people vaccinated and deaths (−0.75), suggesting reciprocal relationships between those pairs of variables. In addition, Granger causality tests determined that the vaccinated population dynamics can be used to forecast the behavior of deaths (p-value < 0.05), evidencing the impact of vaccinations against COVID-19. Also, the coefficient of determination (R2) indicated a robust representation of the real data. Using the Peruvian context as an example case, the logistic model’s projections of cases, deaths, and vaccinations provide crucial insights into the pandemic, guiding public health tactics and reaffirming the essential role of vaccinations and resource distribution for an effective fight against COVID-19.

Original languageEnglish
Article number1648
JournalVaccines
Volume11
Issue number11
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 2023

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 by the authors.

Keywords

  • correlation
  • deaths
  • infections
  • logistic model
  • pandemic
  • SARS-CoV-2
  • vaccines

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