Prediction of non-muscle invasive bladder cancer outcomes assessed by innovative multimarker prognostic models

the SBC/EPICURO Study Investigators

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8 Scopus citations


Background: We adapted Bayesian statistical learning strategies to the prognosis field to investigate if genome-wide common SNP improve the prediction ability of clinico-pathological prognosticators and applied it to non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) patients. Methods: Adapted Bayesian sequential threshold models in combination with LASSO were applied to consider the time-to-event and the censoring nature of data. We studied 822 NMIBC patients followed-up >10years. The study outcomes were time-to-first-recurrence and time-to-progression. The predictive ability of the models including up to 171,304 SNP and/or 6 clinico-pathological prognosticators was evaluated using AUC-ROC and determination coefficient. Results: Clinico-pathological prognosticators explained a larger proportion of the time-to-first-recurrence (3.1%) and time-to-progression (5.4%) phenotypic variances than SNPs (1 and 0.01%, respectively). Adding SNPs to the clinico-pathological-parameters model slightly improved the prediction of time-to-first-recurrence (up to 4%). The prediction of time-to-progression using both clinico-pathological prognosticators and SNP did not improve. Heritability (ĥ2) of both outcomes was <1% in NMIBC. Conclusions: We adapted a Bayesian statistical learning method to deal with a large number of parameters in prognostic studies. Common SNPs showed a limited role in predicting NMIBC outcomes yielding a very low heritability for both outcomes. We report for the first time a heritability estimate for a disease outcome. Our method can be extended to other disease models.

Original languageEnglish
Article number351
JournalBMC Cancer
Issue number1
StatePublished - 3 Jun 2016

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The work was partially supported by Red Temática de Investigación Cooperativa en Cáncer (#RD12/0036/0050), Fondo de Investigaciones Sanitarias (FIS), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, (Grant numbers #PI00–0745, #PI05–1436, and #PI06–1614), and Asociación Española Contra el Cáncer (AECC), Spain; the Intramural Research Program of the Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, USA (Contract NCI NO2-CP-11015); and EU-FP7-HEALTH-F2–2008–201663-UROMOL and EU-7FP-HEALTH-TransBioBC #601933. ELM was funded by a Sara Borrell fellowship, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Spain; and AML by a fellowship of the European Urological Scholarship Program for Research (EUSP Scholarship S-01–2013).

Publisher Copyright:
© 2016 de Maturana et al.


  • Bayesian LASSO
  • Bayesian regression
  • Bayesian statistical learning method
  • Bladder cancer outcome
  • Determination coefficient
  • Genome-wide common SNP
  • Heritability
  • Illumina Infinium HumanHap 1M array
  • Multimarker models
  • Predictive ability
  • Prognosis
  • Progression
  • Recurrence


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