Simulation of Tsunami inundation in central Peru from future megathrust earthquake scenarios

Erick Mas, Bruno Adriano, Nelson Pulido, Cesar Omar Jimenez Tintaya, Shunichi Koshimura

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

6 Scopus citations

Abstract

We estimated, from twelve scenarios of potential megathrust earthquakes, the tsunami impact on the Lima-Callao region in Central Peru. In addition, we conducted hazard mapping using the local envelope of the maximum inundation simulated in these scenarios. The deterministic approach is supported by the decades of geodetic measurements in this area that characterize the interseismic strain build up since historical megathrust earthquakes. The earthquake scenarios for simulation proposed in  [1] introduce spatially correlated short-wavelength slip heterogeneities to a first slip model in [2] calculated from the interseismic coupling (ISC) distribution in Central Peru. The ISC was derived from GPS monitoring data as well as from historical earthquake information. The results of strong ground motion simulations in [1] reported that the slip scenario with the deepest average peak values along the strike (Mw = 8.86) generates the largest PGA in the Lima-Callao area. In this study, we found from tsunami simulation results that the slip model with the largest peak slip at a shallow depth (Mw = 8.87) yielded the highest tsunami inundation. Such differences in maximum scenarios for peak ground acceleration and tsunami height reveal the importance of a comprehensive assessment of earthquake and tsunami hazards in order to provide plausible worstcase scenarios for disaster risk management and education.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)961-967
Number of pages7
JournalJournal of Disaster Research
Volume9
Issue number6
DOIs
StatePublished - 1 Dec 2014
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Megathrust earthquake
  • Peru
  • Tsunami hazard
  • Tsunami simulation

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